RB Leipzig vs Man Utd tips: Champions League preview and odds

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RB Leipzig and Manchester United battle it out for a spot in the last 16 of the Champions League when they meet at the Red Bull Arena on Tuesday with United needing a win or a draw to progress. Defeat would condemn them to a place in the last 32 of the Europa League instead. 

Group H was expected to be close when the draw was made and so it has proved to be with United, Leipzig and Paris Saint-Germain all going into the final matchday on nine points. 

Clubs finishing the group stage level on points will be separated first by their head-to-head record, then goal difference. Here are the permutations for each of the three outcomes of this match. 

If Leipzig win

  • United drop into the Europa League regardless of the PSG result
  • Leipzig qualify as group winners if PSG draw or lose and runners-up if PSG win

If the match is drawn

  • United qualify as runners-up if PSG win 
  • United qualify as group winners if PSG draw (with PSG finishing second)
  • United qualify as group winners if PSG lose (with Leipzig finishing second)  

If United win

  • United qualify as runners-up if PSG win (with PSG finishing first) 
  • United qualify as group winners if PSG draw or lose (with PSG finishing first)

RB Leipzig vs Manchester United 

Manchester United enter the match knowing that a draw will be enough to advance but it’s unlikely they will approach the engagement with the intent to play for just a point. United won the reverse fixture 5-0 at Old Trafford and will be mindful that the German side are formidable at the Red Bull Arena and have won all seven matches there this season, but can still complete their mission.

Red Devils to show United front

Based on United’s performances, in particular away from home this season, playing for the draw they need to qualify would be very dangerous. United have impressed away from Old Trafford in 2020-21, winning eight and losing one in all competitions, but they have shipped 10 goals in those matches.

They have heavily relied on their attacking talent for success and could be left red-faced if they attempt to sit back for the draw. Leipzig could also progress with a draw if PSG fail to beat Istanbul Basaksehir, although the latter outcome is unlikely given the Turkish club’s poor record.

Therefore, the hosts will need to come at this fixture with an attacking mindset and that should allow United to do what they do best and hit them on the counter. Leipzig were involved in a heated 3-3 draw at Bayern Munich over the weekend and may be feeling some fatigue. United, meanwhile, can take confidence from the reverse fixture when they ran out 5-0 winners at Old Trafford in October.

Goals galore in Germany

United have scored 13 goals in their five outings in the competition to date, with only Bayern Munich, Borussia Monchengladbach and Barcelona registering more.

Leipzig are also an attack-minded outfit and this could prove to be a very exciting game with lots of chances, rather than a tense and tight affair with both clubs afraid of making mistakes.

Fortunately for the neutrals, both managers have a preference for getting on the front foot and that means the goals should flow freely.

In each of Leipzig’s last two outings, a 3-3 draw at Bayern and a 4-3 win in Istanbul, over 3.5 goals would have landed easily. The same thing can be said about United, whose last four matches have all produced four goals or more.

Red-hot Rashford to register

Marcus Rashford is the joint-top scorer in the Champions League this season with six. The England ace looks the most likely option to get on the scoresheet for United and, if this game plays out as expected, he will be licking his lips at the prospect of hitting Leipzig on the counter.

He bagged a hat-trick from the bench when the German side visited Old Trafford and has been in good form of late, helping United to come from behind when beating West Ham on Saturday.

Rashford has been one of United’s most reliable figures this term, building on great success in attack in 2019-20, and offers plenty of value here.