They’re two of the more legendary programs in college football history, but they sure didn’t appear on equal footing the last time they met on the field. Alabama hammered Notre Dame 42-14 in the 2013 title game of the old Bowl Championship Series, the only meeting between the Tide and Irish in the last three decades.

They face off again Friday in a College Football Playoff semifinal moved from the Rose Bowl to Arlington, Texas, due to COVID-19 concerns in Southern California. The expectation in college football betting circles is another beatdown, with the Crimson Tide favored by nearly three touchdowns.

Can the Fighting Irish make a game of it this time, or will they be embarrassed yet again on the national stage? Here are your best bets for the first of two semifinals that will determine the participants in the Jan. 11 national title game.

Alabama vs Notre Dame Spread Pick

Alabama has been a darling of spread bettors, covering in seven straight contests before letting Florida hang around in the SEC Championship Game. Notre Dame meanwhile has covered just four of its last nine, even failing to beat the spread even against ACC bottom-feeders Syracuse and Georgia Tech.

More concerning, though, was the Irish performance in the ACC Championship Game, where they were utterly exposed by Clemson. Had the Domers not managed a touchdown with 8:09 left to keep it from getting completely out of hand, we might be talking about Texas A&M.

True, Alabama didn’t cover against Florida—but also true, Notre Dame doesn’t have the Gators’ offense. The trends here are clear, and there’s no reason to bet against them. We’ve got Alabama at -20 with DraftKings.

Alabama vs Notre Dame Moneyline Pick

Indeed, there’s no value here, but also no reason to bet on the Irish unless you have a Notre Dame diploma on your office wall. The Domers’ Nov. 7 victory over Clemson, when the Tigers were without star quarterback Trevor Lawrence and Notre Dame Stadium had far too many people in it, proved a completely inaccurate barometer of what this team is capable of against an elite, full-strength opponent on a neutral field.